Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 41.602299 49.013779 57.096374 66.531359 77.207080 88.876141 102.558667
2025-01-19 28.323208 37.630916 48.764859 62.918854 80.274812 100.698585 126.371003
2025-01-26 23.044810 33.519623 46.934931 65.060326 88.558038 117.616286 155.845741
2025-02-02 20.241088 31.722950 47.265240 69.301245 99.124601 137.418290 189.535892
2025-02-09 17.439912 29.308807 46.216542 71.254415 106.456544 153.161077 218.603784
2025-02-16 15.044990 27.011391 44.890623 72.443696 112.534318 167.292577 246.003041
2025-02-23 12.810516 24.551774 42.929671 72.352923 116.571626 178.621841 269.930761
2025-03-02 10.693433 21.905891 40.296949 70.873272 118.294279 186.588217 289.351995
2025-03-09 9.173349 20.011324 38.580177 70.537085 121.527294 196.681239 312.017355
2025-03-16 7.308072 17.151319 34.880119 66.601987 118.838902 197.810908 321.629128
2025-03-23 6.621515 16.418764 34.731782 68.443923 125.235000 212.661745 351.827355
2025-03-30 5.680069 15.000764 33.170334 67.696301 127.334971 220.980632 372.513294
2025-04-06 5.311708 14.838198 34.107871 71.745335 138.171086 244.242533 418.275840
2025-04-13 4.123135 12.609013 30.810164 67.919039 135.614365 246.516877 432.323565
2025-04-20 3.705240 12.090191 30.833387 70.199487 143.652829 266.088241 474.112969
2025-04-27 3.521247 12.116805 31.983721 74.711382 155.873077 293.005304 528.561589
2025-05-04 3.166841 11.610400 31.909611 76.788290 163.807421 313.136302 572.852586
2025-05-11 2.801473 10.980570 31.465115 78.052604 170.289658 331.064923 614.189888
2025-05-18 2.403883 10.146058 30.421223 77.956113 174.180660 344.693758 648.910507
2025-05-25 1.988775 9.126901 28.770667 76.383052 175.105213 353.162922 675.286408
2025-06-01 1.694296 8.407166 27.739728 76.025590 178.310150 365.699162 708.871008
2025-06-08 1.296606 7.164977 25.134770 71.840056 173.589722 363.819646 717.726021
2025-06-15 1.176112 6.931861 25.203507 73.799548 181.379436 384.837785 766.732327